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Aalesund are not performing well as a unit and it’s because of two reasons; lots of new players, and their constant change of style in search of success. I thing they need more time to get the team working. Haugesund played well home to Sarpsborg. A decent performance, but a loss away to difficult opponents in Tromsø. Their most important men are playing and I see no reason why they should be as bad as last season away from home. This is imo more even than odds indicate.

The Italian Job
Great book for understanding football management.

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Strømsgodset -0,25

Its a bigger match for them than Lillestrøm, they have a cup final and needs to keep up quality in training and match. Their team is all about grabbing opertunities, improving, having fun and believe. Lillestrøm is different. Disappointment, no real hope. Many players without passion. Strømsgodset will win easily if they continue their usual way at home. One important missing, but I doubt that’s why the odds is so high.

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Mjøndalen -Nybergsund UNDER 3,25

A surprisingly high line. Normally when to teams are done fro the season there is more risk of it being a dull 1-1 than a goalfest. Both these teams are normally pretty defensive minded and careful. Mjøndalen with some high scoring matches lately, but against much worse organized teams than Nybergsund.

The Italian Job
Great book for understanding football management.

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Ranheim is secure in play off, but they need to keep going. Normally and by using my standard methods, this will not at all be a bet. Actually the opposite. But the lack of motivation Sogndal showed after winning the league, makes it hard to avoid going against. In other words I take a calculated gamble on Ranheims will to maintain their spot for the playoff.

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Strømsgodset (0) @ 1,99
I’m going against the marked. Strømsgodset have their wingers fit and they create a lot. A very nice match up against the two offensive full backs of Molde. New coach Røsler play some guys out of position. Molde will probably not benefit a lot from coach change. The players liked the old one and they had developed a nice system together, but injuries, out of form and bad actions from sporting director when replacing players made the season difficult. It will still be the same I guess and I cant see his experimental line up change much.

The Italian Job
Great book for understanding football management.

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Hønefoss (0) @ 2,05

I’m very surprised by the odds movement on this. I rater expect it to end with ca 1,80 Hønefoss on levelball. They are a better defensive unit and Haugesund struggle with balancing the risk and reward when going forward. At home they are brilliant and seem to be full of energy, but away they dont have the same energy. Some signs of tiredness in the Haugesund team, Hønefoss with slightly better squad to cover for injuries. Imo the best bet from Norway today.

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Brann-Viking over 3 @ 2,06

Brann allowed numerous runs and shots against them vs Strømsgodset. With a more distinctive finisher, they would have scored more then once. In the last home match it was similar. The reason is Brann`s chaotic organization with men out of position or people who have not played much together. Mix that with only one hardworking midfielder when in defense, and you get the picture. Viking was thinking more offensive than defensive away to Molde. That earned them a point. Another open game vs ever-entertaining Start. I guess they will still do it. Most of their goalscorers are fit, except for their leading man Ingelsten. Hence the nice odds. He is not that much of a miss because he would most likely have been played out of position anyway and Viking have as good replacements.

The Italian Job
Great book for understanding football management.

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Alta is more of a favourite than indicated. Strong matches lately except for the one vs Follo were they only managed to turn on their normal game for the last 20 minutes. Bodø is not as bad away as standings so far indicate, but they have huge problems winning and are inconsistent. I have a feeling this is a bigger game for Alta than for Bodø. This is tight and such small details can edge it.

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Strømsgodset with some in form offensive players, more than capable to cause problems for the fullbacks of Brann. Artificial turf, Saturday match and a new coach effect fading out are all working against Brann. I will not go in details on styles and players this time.

The Italian Job
Great book for understanding football management.

Recently I have been experimenting with changing the time when the picks are posted. To my disappointment I have seen a paid service posting something which looks to be inspired from the picks. Either from here or from twitter. I have not made up my mind about how to deal with it. Charging money for other peoples work, reminds me of the worst aspects of capitalism. One option is to post very late. Another one is not to post. A third option can be to post very few selections, and not regularly. I will also have to look at my writings. Apart from the occasional bad English and unedited nature of the text (due to extreme hurry), I might reveal too much and perhaps its time to change this too.

I’m disappointed and rethinking the blog. Thanks for all encouraging messages and emails.

Some more picks at twitter.
Enjoy your Sunday :)

The Italian Job
Great book for understanding football management.